{ "meta": { "source": "Cliometry", "url": "https://cliometry.com/data/leverage-decay.json", "methodology": "레버리지·인버스 ETF의 '설계 배수'(일일 목표)와 다구간 보유 시 '실현 배수'의 차이를 측정. windows는 거래일 기준 20/60/252일 최신 스냅샷 — 기초 누적수익(baseCumPct)·상품 누적수익(levCumPct)·설계배수 기대선(expectedPct)·기대선차(gapPp: 음수=미달[감쇠]·양수=초과[추세장 복리])·실현배수(realizedMultiple = ln(1+상품누적)/ln(1+기초누적))·기초 실현변동성(baseVolAnnPct)·이론 감쇠 근사(theoDragPp = −0.5·k·(k−1)·σ²·기간/252). decay_series_60d는 각 거래일에서 끝나는 trailing-60일 감쇠의 일별 시계열(상장 후 60거래일부터). 종가는 분배금 반영(adjclose) 우선, 매일 전체 누적 시계열로 갱신. 과거 확정 수익률의 기계적 분해이며 매매 신호·방향 예측이 아니다.", "data_origin": "Yahoo Finance chart API (레버리지·기초 ETF adjclose)", "updated": "2026-07-28T22:04:05.941Z", "cadence": "daily", "delay_notice": "지연·참조 시세. 미래 실현배수를 예측하지 않으며, 특정 상품 우열 판단이 아님.", "license": "CC-BY-4.0", "disclaimer": "투자 권유가 아닌 데이터·정보 제공 목적입니다. 특정 종목·상품의 매매 신호가 아닙니다." }, "pairs": [ { "id": "kodex-inverse-2x", "label": "KODEX 200선물인버스2X vs KODEX 200", "market": "KR", "leveraged": "252670.KS", "benchmark": "069500.KS", "design_multiple": -2, "caveat": "인버스2X는 선물 기준 -2배. 기초는 현물 ETF 근사.", "first_date": "2016-09-22", "observations": 2383, "latest_date": "2026-07-28", "windows": [ { "days": 20, "levCumPct": 71.83, "baseCumPct": -29.86, "expectedPct": 59.73, "gapPp": 12.1, "realizedMultiple": -1.53, "baseVolAnnPct": 83.39, "theoDragPp": -16.56 }, { "days": 60, "levCumPct": -27.81, "baseCumPct": -4.57, "expectedPct": 9.13, "gapPp": -36.95, "realizedMultiple": 6.97, "baseVolAnnPct": 76.32, "theoDragPp": -41.61 }, { "days": 252, "levCumPct": -90.55, "baseCumPct": 121.52, "expectedPct": -243.04, "gapPp": 152.49, "realizedMultiple": -2.97, "baseVolAnnPct": 51.2, "theoDragPp": -78.64 } ], "decay_series_60d": [ { "date": "2016-12-16", "gapPp": -0.49, "realizedMultiple": -2.4, "baseVolAnnPct": 11.22 }, { "date": "2016-12-19", "gapPp": -0.23, "realizedMultiple": -2.2, "baseVolAnnPct": 11.22 }, { "date": "2016-12-20", "gapPp": -0.03, "realizedMultiple": -2.08, "baseVolAnnPct": 11.2 }, { "date": "2016-12-21", "gapPp": -0.1, "realizedMultiple": -2.12, "baseVolAnnPct": 11.13 }, { "date": "2016-12-22", "gapPp": -0.12, "realizedMultiple": -2.13, "baseVolAnnPct": 11.11 }, { "date": "2016-12-23", "gapPp": -0.04, "realizedMultiple": null, "baseVolAnnPct": 11.02 }, { "date": "2016-12-26", "gapPp": 0.05, "realizedMultiple": -2.03, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.79 }, { "date": "2016-12-27", "gapPp": 0.21, "realizedMultiple": -1.91, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.73 }, { "date": "2016-12-28", "gapPp": 0.16, "realizedMultiple": -1.97, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.75 }, { "date": "2016-12-29", "gapPp": 0.11, "realizedMultiple": -1.95, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.66 }, { "date": "2017-01-02", "gapPp": 0.31, "realizedMultiple": -1.9, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.66 }, { "date": "2017-01-03", "gapPp": 0.47, "realizedMultiple": -1.89, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.77 }, { "date": "2017-01-04", "gapPp": 0.57, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.34 }, { "date": "2017-01-05", "gapPp": 0.56, "realizedMultiple": -1.96, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.38 }, { "date": "2017-01-06", "gapPp": 0.78, "realizedMultiple": -2, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.22 }, { "date": "2017-01-09", "gapPp": 0.72, "realizedMultiple": -1.99, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.19 }, { "date": "2017-01-10", "gapPp": 0.68, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.2 }, { "date": "2017-01-11", "gapPp": 0.84, "realizedMultiple": -2.02, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.72 }, { "date": "2017-01-12", "gapPp": 1.01, "realizedMultiple": -2, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.73 }, { "date": "2017-01-13", "gapPp": 0.76, "realizedMultiple": -2.02, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.75 }, { "date": "2017-01-16", "gapPp": 1, "realizedMultiple": -1.97, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.77 }, { "date": "2017-01-17", "gapPp": 0.89, "realizedMultiple": -1.97, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.69 }, { "date": "2017-01-18", "gapPp": 0.68, "realizedMultiple": -2.02, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.69 }, { "date": "2017-01-19", "gapPp": 1.2, "realizedMultiple": -2, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.33 }, { "date": "2017-01-20", "gapPp": 1.03, "realizedMultiple": -1.99, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.32 }, { "date": "2017-01-23", "gapPp": 0.89, "realizedMultiple": -2.01, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.33 }, { "date": "2017-01-24", "gapPp": 0.85, "realizedMultiple": -2.03, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.31 }, { "date": "2017-01-25", "gapPp": 1, "realizedMultiple": -2.02, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.32 }, { "date": "2017-01-26", "gapPp": 1.87, "realizedMultiple": -2.02, "baseVolAnnPct": 9.99 }, { "date": "2017-01-31", "gapPp": 1.49, "realizedMultiple": -2.02, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.08 }, { "date": "2017-02-01", "gapPp": 1.7, "realizedMultiple": -2.03, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.04 }, { "date": "2017-02-02", "gapPp": 1.1, "realizedMultiple": -2.04, "baseVolAnnPct": 9.94 }, { "date": "2017-02-03", "gapPp": 0.99, "realizedMultiple": -2.05, "baseVolAnnPct": 9.94 }, { "date": "2017-02-06", "gapPp": 2.03, "realizedMultiple": -2.04, "baseVolAnnPct": 8.85 }, { "date": "2017-02-07", "gapPp": 1.41, "realizedMultiple": -1.99, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.99 }, { "date": "2017-02-08", "gapPp": 1.71, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.75 }, { "date": "2017-02-09", "gapPp": 2.18, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.51 }, { "date": "2017-02-10", "gapPp": 2.43, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.44 }, { "date": "2017-02-13", "gapPp": 2.37, "realizedMultiple": -1.97, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.43 }, { "date": "2017-02-14", "gapPp": 2.21, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.47 }, { "date": "2017-02-15", "gapPp": 2.45, "realizedMultiple": -1.97, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.46 }, { "date": "2017-02-16", "gapPp": 2.34, "realizedMultiple": -1.99, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.44 }, { "date": "2017-02-17", "gapPp": 1.88, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.15 }, { "date": "2017-02-20", "gapPp": 1.95, "realizedMultiple": -1.96, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.15 }, { "date": "2017-02-21", "gapPp": 2.52, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.2 }, { "date": "2017-02-22", "gapPp": 2.61, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.19 }, { "date": "2017-02-23", "gapPp": 2.58, "realizedMultiple": -1.97, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.19 }, { "date": "2017-02-24", "gapPp": 2.11, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.43 }, { "date": "2017-02-27", "gapPp": 1.54, "realizedMultiple": -2, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.49 }, { "date": "2017-02-28", "gapPp": 1.66, "realizedMultiple": -1.99, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.49 }, { "date": "2017-03-02", "gapPp": 2.46, "realizedMultiple": -1.99, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.46 }, { "date": "2017-03-03", "gapPp": 2.12, "realizedMultiple": -1.97, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.79 }, { "date": "2017-03-06", "gapPp": 1.51, "realizedMultiple": -1.99, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.46 }, { "date": "2017-03-07", "gapPp": 1.63, "realizedMultiple": -1.99, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.52 }, { "date": "2017-03-08", "gapPp": 0.76, "realizedMultiple": -2.05, "baseVolAnnPct": 6.76 }, { "date": "2017-03-09", "gapPp": 1.28, "realizedMultiple": -1.93, "baseVolAnnPct": 6.79 }, { "date": "2017-03-10", "gapPp": 1.26, "realizedMultiple": -1.95, "baseVolAnnPct": 6.78 }, { "date": "2017-03-13", "gapPp": 1.67, "realizedMultiple": -1.94, "baseVolAnnPct": 7.09 }, { "date": 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10.14 }, { "date": "2017-07-06", "gapPp": 4.09, "realizedMultiple": -1.97, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.07 }, { "date": "2017-07-07", "gapPp": 4.07, "realizedMultiple": -1.96, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.12 }, { "date": "2017-07-10", "gapPp": 4.62, "realizedMultiple": -1.97, "baseVolAnnPct": 9.99 }, { "date": "2017-07-12", "gapPp": 5.13, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, "baseVolAnnPct": 9.93 }, { "date": "2017-07-13", "gapPp": 5.97, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, "baseVolAnnPct": 10.08 }, { "date": "2017-07-14", "gapPp": 5.33, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, "baseVolAnnPct": 9.97 }, { "date": "2017-07-17", "gapPp": 6.12, "realizedMultiple": -1.97, "baseVolAnnPct": 9.89 }, { "date": "2017-07-18", "gapPp": 5.87, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, "baseVolAnnPct": 9.9 }, { "date": "2017-07-19", "gapPp": 6.11, "realizedMultiple": -1.97, "baseVolAnnPct": 9.89 }, { "date": "2017-07-20", "gapPp": 6.81, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, "baseVolAnnPct": 9.8 }, { "date": "2017-07-21", "gapPp": 6.72, "realizedMultiple": -1.98, 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